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Author Topic: Too Big to Fail?  (Read 627 times)

Offline joasis

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Too Big to Fail?
« on: August 24, 2020, 01:22:29 PM »
I wrote this on another forum, thought I would share what I see coming.


Too Big To Fail
Some have taken a position that New York City is "too big to fail"...because of many factors. The arts....theater...artists....museums....tourists.. ...restaurants.....you name it.

These are different times now....but here is my take:

Coming from Oklahoma, I have seen what happens when companies close up shop....and the progression as farm size increases, but fewer farmers.....and the rise and fall of oil production.....

We all know what happened in rural America....small towns for the most part go away...schools consolidate...stores close...people leave....because when the base of a community is gone, or transitioning....the very reason for the town to exist changes. Demand for grocery stores goes away...barber shops, hamburger stands....gas stations...feed stores....and on and on....

In Oklahoma, with a few exceptions, everything here is based on oil production and agriculture. Farms get larger, less farmers, and towns that supported the farmers died. Oil industries move away, and the employees move with them....towns get smaller....when they both leave...there is nothing remaining to keep a town there.

Ok, so what? Easy to see how a town of a few thousand, or many thousands can die....right? But never a city. Cities are diverse, right? And these are cities of millions......

So what will be the next phase of changing America? Technology.

New York City is the center of the financial world...Wall Street, banks, trading.....all of it....but how much depends on being there in person? What does the trading floor even look like on Wall Street? Everyone knows it can be virtual....so you can live in Oklahoma and be a trader on Wall Street....for instance...no need to move and rent an apartment and pay the exorbitant taxes required to live there or commute from NJ or CT to work there.....work from home is now a reality, and good or bad, Covid and panic has shown this to be real and here and now.

How many companies will continue to buy or rent high dollar office space when they can increase the bottom line by having employees work from home or remotely? These are the jobs that fuel NYC and the companies that fuel the commercial real estate....and if they have discovered they don't need a presence in the Big Apple to make it, or they realize higher profits and less in taxes from leaving, what is to stop them from going?

So all of the financial firms begin to bail....as they have no need for even an office.....then what happens....the restaurants that cater to them begin to close....and those employees have to leave since no one will be building new restaurants....and the glitzy stores that sell the upscale fashions? They will go since the people who work in the financial district won't be buying new fashions for a look they no longer need.....janitorial services will shrink....the offices will be vacant and no need to clean....apartments will have vacancy rates spiraling upwards...real estate agents will not be able to sell anything because there will be no buyers........

So...is a city "too big to fail"...really? Ask someone who has seen it happen in small scale across America.

NYC doesn't make cars, or ships....or anything to soften the blow of loosing the largest segment of their economy, and without the massive cash flow of Wall Street, who will the artists play for? Theater for who?

I am putting this here to point out that the economy is like a string of dominoes.....diversity is survival....but can NYC transition to? Tourism? Not likely....not in numbers that can sustain the city...

So .....read about East St Louis some time.....NYC is not "too big to fail" in my opinion, and it isn't stupid to contemplate the future of cities or towns or states.....
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Offline Ox

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Re: Too Big to Fail?
« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2020, 01:49:42 PM »
It most definitely can and will fail.  But the liberals will proclaim it a resounding success when it does.  Craziness...

People are abandoning these large cities like rats off a sinking ship.  That's no accident.
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Offline furu

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Re: Too Big to Fail?
« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2020, 12:35:27 AM »
Very astute thinking and analysis.  It will be very interesting as this pans out.
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